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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.